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How Do You Calculate A Product's Demand?
Posted By: greybear* on 7/15/2004 6:34 PM (CST) 125 Points
I'd like to know the best way to calculate the convienience good's demand just before introducing it to a new market.

Posted by: greybear* Author Response
7/15/2004 6:36 PM (CST)
This is a great web site!
 
Posted by: vikrant* Accepted Answer
7/16/2004 6:09 AM (CST)
Product demand is gauged by 2 things :
1. Total no of users
2. frequency of usage

Product demand is frequency of usage * Total number of users.

product demand varies according to the frequency of usage.

it can be for a year, a month or a week or a day or for regions, for country etc.
 
Posted by: SteveByrneBranding Accepted Answer
7/16/2004 6:12 PM (CST)
A simple method is to think in terms of MARKET SHARE. If you have competitors, how much are they selling COLLECTIVELY then add a growth factor for upcoming year. For your sales, think in terms of how much of the 2005 pie can we get. And for a completely new product look for comps of the products and market situations that are closest to your situation.

Hope this helps
 
Posted by: POP Boss* Accepted Answer
7/28/2004 10:26 AM (CST)
Like for Like products year on year applying the current category trends is one way to look at it, thought you're likely not to get rate of sales for a competing or similar product.

If no market reference is available, look at the audience (your potential total number of purchasers) for your product, link it to its usage cycle (how often will they use it) and the frequency of exposure for that audience (how many times will they see it in the market).

You obtain a maximum number of exposures from which you can decide to satisfy only a certain ratio at launching time and increase the availability as necessary.

The issue relates to your distribution channel penetration: retail will want more to list you, increasing your risk.

To solve the issue, you should decide to run a test launch on a representative geographical area. Representative in term of the market penetration you can attain as well as for the spread of potential purchasers.

Regards

Nico
 
Posted by: jose04 Accepted Answer
8/4/2004 3:59 PM (CST)
greybear

The future is uncertain, but the saving grace is that as a marketer you operate on educated hunches.

There might be sources from syndicated agencies. Of course you may have to buy them. If you don't trust these estimates, the best thing is to do your own research. GO through the grind. Choose the sample, after you have defined the population (all your potential customers). Ask them questions about their potential to buy the good/service. You could give importance to the descriptive statistics from your survey results like the mean, standard dev. etc and set confidence limits on your expected sales. Cross check these survey results with established sales persons opinions on the sales potential for your convenience good.

These are some of my top of the mind pointers to your query.

Hope they help.

All the best!!!
 
Posted by: Val (Moderator)* Moderator Response
8/8/2004 11:44 AM (CST)
Hello all. I am closing this question, since its more than 2 weeks old. We do this to make sure members' contributions are rewarded in a timely manner and to improve the visibility of newer questions. Thanks, so much, for participating!

Val (Moderator)
 


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