Marketing Profs

As I wrote this article, two days before the official launch of the iPhone, the pitch of media, pundit, and public anxiety over perhaps the most anticipated new product since Windows 95 had reached a level only Steve Jobs could properly describe—Insanely Great!

At the time, Technorati said there were nearly 189,000 blog postings that talk about the iPhone (in English; there are nearly 305,000 in all languages). Compare that with 39,170 that mention Motorola's RAZR, a phone that was the previous biggest smash hit and which literally put Motorola back in the cell phone business after years of decline.

Every major media outlet has weighed in. The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today, every computer- or telecom-related industry trade journal has reviewed it. Virtually everyone who's been privileged to receive one of the media samples for review has said it's cool—so cool it almost lives up to its hype. Prospective iPhone customers started waiting in line outside flagship stores in New York Tuesday morning. Like the launches of with videogame consoles or Harry Potter books. But unprecedented for a phone.

So does all this mean runaway success—is the game already won? Or will there be an equal and opposite reaction when possibility and excitement about the future gives way to reality, and inevitable issues arise with service, availability, bugs in functionality, and unfulfilled expectations?

Apple fanatics say it will be successful in the long term because it is ultra-cool, easy to use, a breakthrough in design elegance and software sophistication. Naysayers say nothing could live up to this level of hype, and that when things die down sales will appear lackluster no matter how good they are. Virtually everyone notes the stupidity of getting into an exclusive deal with AT&T and warns that this could be the albatross around the iPhone's neck.

Almost all of the speculation and predictions are based on visceral and emotional reactions, influenced heavily by the reality-dispersion bubble that surrounds Steve Jobs, and by the majority belief that "better" wins.

But if we run with that notion reductio ad absurdum, what exactly does "winning" mean? Assuming that the consensus is that the iPhone is a better phone, does it have to achieve market dominance as a late entrant the way the iPod has in the MP3 player space? Surely it doesn't have to match iPod's 80% market share within five years! There are over a billion mobile phones already in use around the world. Is a 10% or 20% market share strong enough to be considered successful? (The RAZR's share is only around 5%.) Is this even the right yardstick to use?

The iPhone Will Be a Disruptive Winner

iPhone will be successful regardless of the metrics used. It will be successful beyond the expectations of the most enthusiastic pundits. It will be successful beyond what Steve Jobs thinks. It will be successful in spite of the apparent deficiencies that have already been noted in the reviews. It will be successful despite partnering exclusively with a single carrier, and the one most despised in the industry—although this will be the biggest road bump the iPhone faces. It will be successful because it will change the game—actually, it will change many games—and therein lies the secret of its success. It will do all this because it will be disruptive.

But predictions are dangerous. And mine disagree with those of many people whose opinions I respect and whose theories I borrow from. Even though I'm siding with the majority who believe the iPhone will be a big winner, how do I arrive at that conclusion and what exactly makes it disruptive?