Global Ad Spend Down Nearly 10%

Worldwide advertising expenditure in 2009 is estimated to be down 9.8% compared with 2008, a downward revision of 4 percentage points from projections issued in March, according to media communications agency Carat, part of Aegis Media. This drop is due to significant reduction of forecasts in all regions, with the exception of Asia Pacific, where the 2009 forecast has been revised marginally upwards to -0.3%.

Although global spending for 2009 has been cut back considerably, predictions remain for a slight return to growth in 2010, at 1.0% globally, driven by much more stable conditions in the West and recovery in developing markets, particularly China:

"These significant revisions are not unexpected in the context of the recent volatility of the market, and represent a cautious attitude towards adspend this year, most significantly in the US and Europe. China remains the most resilient of the major economies, and we have revised our estimate upwards since March to 6.9% for 2009. However, even in China, we have noticed advertisers proceeding cautiously, and adjusting spend on a quarterly basis," said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media. "Despite the reduction to forecasts for 2009, we still believe that 2010 will see growth, albeit very modest. We expect the market to bottom out in North America and Europe, and to improve further in developing markets. Even after that initial recovery, however, the global advertising market will still be below its absolute 2006 level."

Changes in Major Advertising Market Forecasts

Of the world's largest advertising markets, the most notable revisions occurred in the US, Russia, Italy, Germany, and the UK. Lesser downward revisions were seen in Spain, France, and Canada.

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