Smartphone units sold worldwide in 2009 will grow 14.5% from 2008 levels, according to a forecast by Infonetics, which also anticipates a 21% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in smartphone units from 2008 to 2013—significantly better than projections for other mobile markets.
Despite an expected revenue decline in 2009 due mainly to revenue erosion and lower-ARPU (average revenue per user) units coming to market, smartphone revenue will pick up in 2010 and continue growing, easily outstripping the combined revenue of standard mobile phones by 2012, Infonetics said.
Other findings from the Infonetics biannual Mobile/WiFi Phones and Subscribers market size, market share, and forecast report:
- Despite an estimated 10% increase in number of worldwide mobile and Wi-Fi phones sold in the second half of 2009, downward price pressure will cause a 9% revenue decline.
- Some 1 billion mobile phones will be sold in 2009 worldwide.
- Smartphones account for an increasing percentage of total mobile revenue, driven in part by HSPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) deployments in North America, Western Europe, and developed Asia/Pacific countries.
- Nokia maintained its mobile market leadership in the first half of 2009.
- Apple's smartphone share rose to 9% in the second quarter of 2009 on the strength of the iPhone 3GS.
China Helps Drive Smartphone Growth
China's smartphone market grew in 2008 with a 30% increase in shipments over the previous year, according to separate research, from In-Stat. Smartphones accounted for 15% of total mobile phone shipments in China in 2008, up from 12% in 2007, In-Stat said.
Key drivers of the growth include mobile internet applications, GPS, and multimedia functionality, according to In-Stat, which said Symbian retained its leadership in the OS marketplace, with a small share increase in 2008, due to steady smartphone sales growth from Nokia and sales decline from Linux.
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