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Ad Spend Plunge Slows: Recovery in 2010, Growth in 2011

July 9, 2009

ZenithOptimedia revised downward its forecast for global ad expenditure growth in 2009 to -8.5%, from its April prediction of -6.9%, after Q1 came in below its predictions, the firm announced (pdf) this week.

The second quarter of 2009, however, was not quite as tough as Q1, and expectations for the rest of the year remain unchanged as signs emerge that the downturn is approaching its nadir, ZenithOptimedia said.

It anticipates a mild global recovery in ad expenditures in 2010, followed by a return to growth for all global regions in 2011.

The following is a summary of company's ad spend analysis and 2009-2011 forecast for various geographies and media.

Advertising Expenditure by Region

  • Not every market is in decline: Of the 79 markets covered, 25 are still growing. Many of them are small, young markets, but they also include heavyweights like China and India:
    • China ad spend is forecast to grow 5.4% this year, overtaking the UK to become the world's fourth-largest ad market.
    • India is expected to grow 7.7% this year and overtake Norway, Mexico and the Netherlands to become the 14th largest.
  • In 2010 a mild global recovery of +1.6% is anticipated, as 62 of the 79 markets experience growth.
  • Regions that went into the ad downturn first are expected to suffer the most and come out of it last:
    • North America will shrink a further 2.4% in 2010, after shrinking 3.7% in 2008 and 10.3% in 2009.
    • A stagnant 0.2% growth rate is anticipated for Western Europe in 2010, following 1.1% decline in 2008 and 9.2% decline in 2009.
  • However, 2009 will be the only year of decline for Asia Pacific, Central & Eastern Europe, and Africa/Middle East/Rest of World, while Latin America will come to a halt rather than go into reverse.
  • Those regions will return to growth in 2010, followed by North America and Western Europe in 2011.
  • In 2011 all but five markets (Finland, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, and Taiwan) are predicted to grow, while global ad recovery builds to +4.3%.

Global Advertising Expenditure by Medium

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