Global ad spending is forecast to reach $449.6 billion in 2010—up 4.9% from a year earlier—and continue to grow between 4.6% and 5.2% over the next three years, fueled by digital media and strong ad growth in developing markets, according to projections by ZenithOptimedia.
Annual global ad spending growth for 2011 (up 4.6%) isn't expected to keep pace with 2010. However, by 2012, spending is expected to return to pre-recession levels, when annual ad outlays reach an estimated $495 billion (up 5.2%).
In the US, annual ad spending is forecast to grow a modest 2.2% in 2010, to $151.5 billion, up 2.4% in 2011, and then to 2.8% in 2012.
Spending in developing markets is projected to grow faster than other, accounting for 35.9% of ad expenditure in 2013, up from 31.5% in 2010.
Below, additional projections issued by ZenithOptimedia.
Growth in Developing Markets Strong
With the Chinese economy forecast to grow 51% between 2010 and 2013, China is expected to overtake Germany to become the world's third-largest ad market in 2011, staying at that position throughout the forecast period. China is currently just over one-half (52%) the size of Japan, the second-largest ad market, and is projected to become three-quarters (76%) of its size by 2013.
With the US market returning to growth, it will contribute the most new ad dollars to the global market between 2010 and 2013 ($13.3 billion), despite its slow pace.
However, the next five largest contributors are all developing markets: China (which contributes almost as much as the US, at $11.6 billion), Russia ($4.4 billion), Brazil ($4.4 billion), Indonesia ($2.7 billion) and India ($2.5 billion).
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Display Ads Fastest-Growing Internet Category
The Internet is still rapidly increasing its market share, which will increase from 14.0% in 2010 to 17.9% in 2013.
Display's share of Internet ad expenditure fell from 36.2% in 2006 to 33.6% in 2009, but the rise of Internet video and social media has reversed that trend. Display is now forecast to account for 33.9% of Internet ad spend in 2010, growing to 35.0% in 2013.
TV's share of the ad market has increased from 37.1% in 2005 to 40.7% in 2010, and will rise to 41.8% in 2013. Those strong 5-year results are due to industry improvements such as bigger and higher-quality displays, more channels delivered by digital television, and the convenience of PVRs, ZenithOptimedia said.
Tech Advances to Boost TV, Cinema, and Outdoor
Ad expenditure in newspapers and magazines are forecast to decline 2% between 2010 and 2013, while Internet advertising grows three times faster than the market as a whole, up 48% during the period.
Advances in technology are expected to help TV and cinema each grow 19% between 2010 and 2013, while outdoor grows ahead of the market at 18%.
About the data: Ad-expenditure projections are issued on a quarterly basis by ZenithOptimedia. The above is based on projections issued in December 2010.