In a tried-and-true genre of disaster movies, there's a dramatic moment when an asteroid is plummeting toward Earth. Amidst a flurry of intense activity and heroics, the asteroid is redirected at the last possible moment... and tragedy is averted. All is saved.

I've always had the same question about this scenario: Shouldn't the scientists be working sooner to change the asteroid's trajectory—like when it is way out by Neptune? After all, that's when little changes can make a big difference in the end.

I think of the relationship between advertising and shopper marketing in terms of that B-movie analogy.

Advertising helps direct shoppers toward a brand selection long before entering the store; then shopper marketing takes over at the point of arrival. And it's the calibration and balance between advertising and in-store marketing that are essential to success in the retail environment.

The Emergence of Shopper Marketing

It's often said that shopper marketing does its work in the "last three-feet of the sale." This "first moment of truth," as Procter & Gamble's CEO and President A.G. Lafley termed it, is the decision-making point when a shopper selects a brand for the person who will consume it.

In the current economy, there is an emerging, albeit regrettable belief that if shopper marketing is done correctly, advertising may not be needed as much, if at all. So how have some marketers found themselves fixated on shopper marketing?

Shopper marketing has risen in prominence in recent years due largely to Wal-Mart, which ignited a trend years ago that has spread across the face of retailing. Among product marketers, Wal-Mart commands tremendous respect with roughly 1 of every 13 retail dollars passing through one of its US divisions. Getting a product on Wal-Mart's shelves has been heralded as both a triumph and a challenge due to the tough negotiators in Bentonville who can make even the most seasoned product managers reach for the antacids.

Over the years, brands have had to justify their shelf space to countless retailers in slotting fees, promotions, pricing, and ultimately sales. But powerful Wal-Mart has raised the bar by making brands prove their mettle week after week. As a result, brand managers are constantly seeking new ways to enhance and defend every inch of shelf space. And it has caught on with other retailers, ranging from discount stores to grocery chains.

No doubt, shopper marketing is pleasing to retailers because it makes brands work harder on their behalf and provides visual evidence of their effort. But, sadly, those brands that shift budgets to shopper marketing at the expense of brand advertising will find ultimately it costs them in ways that accounting systems do not capture. Worse yet, it may be based upon an incomplete, if not flawed, set of assumptions.

Statistics Don't Lie?

A 2007 study conducted by Deloitte Consulting for the Grocery Marketing Association revealed that the shopper marketing budgets of food companies were increasing at an annual rate of 21 percent, whereas overall marketing was growing at a mere two percent.

The report was prefaced with a remarkable claim that 70 percent of purchasing decisions are made in-store, and 68 percent of in-store purchases are based upon impulse. Those are incredible numbers, to be sure. But despite their inclusion, these statistics did not come from Deloitte. They were derived from research conducted a decade earlier by the Point-of-Purchase Advertising Institute (POPAI)—a leading advocate for shopper marketing. And, over time, it appears that these statistics have been misattributed to Deloitte, taken out of context and likely used for purposes beyond their original intent.

A new report released by OgilvyAction appears to call the POPAI numbers into question. Released earlier this year, the study found that a more modest 39 percent of US consumers wait to make purchase decisions until they are in the store. And only about one-in-ten change their minds about brand choices while at the retailer. These numbers offer sufficient evidence over previous research to reconsider the practice of slashing brand advertising budgets in favor of shopper marketing initiatives.

If one looks beyond these reports, the shift toward shopper marketing doesn't fully consider consumer perception and the speed at which the average consumer typically shops. In the grocery-store channel, for example, the total time spent shopping is an average of 60 minutes per week.

When one considers the variety of tasks that shoppers must perform in this allotted time, efficiency tends to emerge as the primary mode of behavior. And out of efficiency, most shoppers form habitual behaviors and tend to follow repeated patterns in navigating the store.

Shoppers in this autopilot mode account for a significant amount of behavior in the marketplace. And because grocery stores do not frequently change their layout, week-after-week shoppers file past dozens of brands before finding their location in the proper aisle and selecting the brand they seek. It's right where they have found it last week and the week before. Off the shelf it goes, into their basket, and it's on to their next shopping objective.

That's not to say that shoppers are beyond influence in the grocery aisle—far from it. End caps, displays, vignettes, lighting, video, flooring, and other merchandising elements can effectively break through to the shopper's awareness. But shopper routine and velocity work against noticing a new product on the shelf without the support of advertising to leverage the benefits of in-store merchandising.

What About Our Metaphorical Friend, the Asteroid?

Long before the point of impact, advertising is essential to setting consumers on the right trajectory prior to their arrival at the store. Moreover, advertising is important because it can communicate aspects of brands more effectively than shopper marketing—particularly the brand's core values and emotion-based reasons to believe in the brand.