AI powered inbox filtering from Google and Apple impact more than 70% of emails received.
Although AI in our everyday vernacular is a relatively recent phenomenon, that level of inbox infiltration didn't happen overnight. Dragged into the spotlight with recent antitrust and monopoly lawsuits, these tech giants have been testing various forms of inbox puppetry for over a decade.
- Gmail's tabbed inbox was introduced in 2013 as an optional feature that automatically sorts emails into categories, such as Primary, Social, and Promotions.
- That was swiftly followed with suggested responses from Smart Reply in 2014, which has morphed into what we know today as Gemini-powered contextual smart replies.
- Apple (eventually) followed suit with iOS 18's AI-powered mailbox sorting and summaries... and here we are today.
Although many users are still on the fence on how much inbox interference they need on a daily basis, marketers are facing the uncomfortable reality that previously reliable metrics are losing credibility.
When Apple's Mail Privacy Protection was introduced, industrywide open rates (deceptively) surged by nearly 20 percentage points overnight.
AI distillation layers decide which emails rise and which sink, with little transparency or control for senders. Because direct access to subscribers is gated by the whims of proprietary algorithms, the reputation of engagement metrics has tanked, and we're beginning to feel the rumblings of a reckoning.
The Trouble With Newsletters...
Consider Daniella Pierson, founder of Newsette, who not long ago admitted to inflating her newsletter's subscriber base and overstating key brand partnerships. What started out as creative, scrappy and well-intentioned ambition evolved into hubris, blurring the lines between storytelling and outright misrepresentation.
As news spread, sponsors and marketers panicked and began to re-evaluate their newsletter spending.
Unsurprisingly, that saga has done very little for the reputation of email engagement metrics.
And that tale is also emblematic of a wider issue. When self-reported metrics can't be trusted, and AI powered inboxes obscure real vs. robot opens and clicks, major brands and publishers are left with rising doubt.
Marketers therefore face growing pressure to rebuild measurement frameworks around channels and metrics with transparency and proof of real engagement.
An SOS for SMS
The first text message was sent in 1992 (for trivia buffs: it was a simple "Merry Christmas").
About a generation younger than email, SMS has flown under big tech's radar and remains uninfluenced by consumer AI filtering. But as marketers search for dependable ways to reach audiences, the credibility of the humble text message is growing, increasingly finding its way onto marketing budgets.
And for good reason.
SMS is the same medium that people use to speak to their friends and family. Association with such intimacy comes a higher expectation of dialogue: two-way conversations that pull back the curtain and humanize brands and creators. The metrics echo those sentiments. Reported open rates hover around 98%, clickthrough rates range 20-32%, and reply rates reach north of 20%.
As with email, SMS is not, and should never be, a marketer's silver bullet. There are privacy regulations, strict consent requirements, and subscriber fatigue that must be managed. Similarly, treating SMS as an extension of an email or social campaign will likely end in disappointment.
Texting Is Not a Numbers Game
If we've learned nothing else from Newsette, we've learned that the hubris of number-chasing can fly us too close to the sun.
Marketers who get the best results out of SMS do so by activating and engaging their highest-quality fans rather than chasing sheer volume or virality.
For those seeking alternatives to the giant email subscriber lists, aim for depth overreach (that extends to channels beyond SMS).
Creators and media figureheads who use SMS to create participatory groups, answering audience questions and soliciting feedback, experience higher quality engagement—a stark contrast with high-volume but low-depth email or social campaigns.
Marketers achieving the best results from SMS have moved away from broadcasting, and the metrics they track are reply-rates, genuine dialogue, and loyalty over time.
The Obligations of Ownership
There's a common assumption that building a social following or launching a newsletter is the same as owning your audience. But as the threatened TikTok ban and the growing influence of Apple and Google in email have shown, a single external decision can shatter the most carefully laid plans.
SMS insulates brands from sudden algorithm changes or monetization policy shifts that we're seeing more and more on rented channels.
However, true ownership comes with real obligations. We've all been on the receiving end of a relentless political text campaign and almost thrown in the towel on democracy itself. Brands and creators must invest in sustained, two-way engagement and respect for audience preferences to avoid fatigue and opt-outs. Ownership is far from absolute.
Another mistaken assumption is that migrating an email audience over to SMS will fix broken engagement. It won't. SMS is not a successor to email, and to engender trust, reciprocity, and loyalty while minimizing opt-outs, marketers need frameworks that reward real conversation and dialogue over one-way broadcasting.
A Port in a Storm
Email was once considered the true safe harbor for measurable audience relationships. In 2013, nobody really thought of Google or Apple as intermediaries in our email subscriber relationships, but that's exactly what they've become.
The trouble with traditional subscriber lists is that they are stagnant. They offer no real proof of ongoing attention or value. (Most of us have an old Yahoo or Hotmail burner account that we hand over when the price for admission is an email—inboxes where newsletters go to die.)
So what can we do today to achieve true marketing resilience?
Scrap mass automation in favor of authentic interaction. Invest in channels with transparent, two-way conversations. Prioritize metrics that actually signal engagement—reply rates, sentiment, meaningful dialogue.
If you build relationships on fresh expertise and regular human touchpoints, loyalty and impact will follow.
