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US consumer spending on deal-a-day offers is forecast to reach $3.9 billion by 2015, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% over the next four years, from an estimated $873 million spent in 2010, according to a report by BIA/Kelsey.

A number of key variables may impact that forecast, BIA/Kelsey notes, such as growth in the number of cities or sites, registered users, average transactions per year, average price per transaction.

Accounting for such variables, the deal-a-day market could climb as high as $6.1 billion by 2015 (a 47.4% CAGR), whereas a very conservative outlook pegs the space at $2.1 billion (19.7% CAGR).

There are now more than 200 players in the group-buying market, targeting an estimated 178 cities (locations) and 102 million people in the US, according to BIA/Kelsey.

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Groupon and Living Social Lead the Pack

Ranked by volume of Web traffic, Groupon and Living Social dominate the group-buying market, with a distant third, according to separate data from Compete

  • Groupon attracted 14.7 million unique visitors in January 2011, down 5.9% from 15.6 million in December 2010.
  • Living Social attracted 10.2 million unique visitors, up 43.9% from 7.1 million from in the previous month.(In January, LivingSocial registered a short-term market share increase from its Jan-19 national Amazon deal in which 1.3 million Amazon gift cards were sold.)

Overall, the number of unique visitors traveling to group-shopping sites increased roughly 820% from Jan 2010 to Jan 2011, according to Compete.

About the data: Projections are from local-media industry adviser BIA/Kelsey. Compete data were compiled using the company's Online Channel Effectiveness (OCE) analytics tool.

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