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Categories of Forecasting Models

Below is a brief overview of the four categories of models and examples of the techniques described in this guide.


These models rely on intuitive judgments, opinions, and probabilities.

Jury of Executive Opinion

Delphi Method


• These methods also rely on judgment and are particularly appropriate for very new technologies and very long-range forecasting.

Curve Fitting

• Extrapolation of Trends

S-shaped Curves

Envelope S-Curves

Analogous Data


• These models are based only on past data. The focus is on using patterns, changes, disturbances, etc. in the data to forecast the future.

Moving Averages

Exponential Smoothing

Decomposition Models



• Models based on the relationship between predictable factors and outcomes.

Regression Analysis

Leading Indicator Analysis

Input-Output Models


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