Real-World Education for Modern Marketers

Join Over 350,000 Marketing Professionals

Start here!
Text:  A A
Forecasting Guide
Selecting the Approach
Combining Approaches
Judgmental Models
Delphi Method
Curve Fitting
Analogous Data
Time Series Models
Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Decomposition Models
Box-Jenkins Models
Leading Indicator
Input-Output Models
S-Shaped Curves

BASIC IDEA: For many technologies, "typical" curves have been found to exist. One of the most frequent used curves is that of the S-curve. The curve begins with a slow start, followed by steep growth, and then a plateau which is characteristic of many technological capabilities and product life cycles.

PROCEDURE: First, translate the data into a cumulative rather than absolute basis. In the example shown below, data for the shipment (rather than sales) of a product is depicted. Note that absolute shipments tend to follow a typical life cyle curve (shown in top graph) while cumulative shipments tend to look like an S-shaped curve (bottom graph). Try fitting a variety of such curves (with different slopes, etc.) to the cumulative data points. This is very subjective but can be quite useful in estimating the shape, extent, or duration of future growth.



Finally, another type of curve for a series of innovation is an envelope curve.


Sign up for MarketingProfs Today ... it's FREE!

Get our best marketing tips daily—just enter your email address below to subscribe!

Search over 4,000 MarketingProfs Resources!  

Subscribe Today

IT'S FREE! Become a member to get the tools and knowledge you need to market smarter.

we respect your privacy.

Stay connected!

Don't miss a bit of MarketingProfs ... join the 350,000 marketers following us.

Most Popular

MarketingProfs Today

Get new marketing updates delivered to your inbox! Sign up for MarketingProfs Today for FREE!

Get to the Po!nt Newsletters

Bite-sized topic-specific newsletters on B2B Marketing, Content Marketing, Email Marketing, Search Engine Marketing, Small Business, Social Media and more. Sign up for one, two or all...for FREE!

Subscribe Today

MarketingProfs uses single
sign-on with Facebook, Twitter, Google and others to make subscribing and signing in easier for you. That's it, and nothing more! Rest assured that MarketingProfs: Your data is secure with MarketingProfs SocialSafe!